Chapter in a nutshell: Probability measures how likely an event is, as a number from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). For equally likely outcomes, $P(E)=\dfrac{\text{favourable outcomes}}{\text{total outcomes}}$. The probability of "not E" is $1-P(E)$.
1. Key Ideas & Terms
- Experiment / trial: an action with uncertain results (toss a coin, roll a die).
- Sample space (S): the set of all possible outcomes; $n(S)$ = its size.
- Event (E): a set of favourable outcomes; $n(E)$ = its size.
- Equally likely: each outcome has the same chance (fair coin/die/cards).
2. Formulas (quick reference โ all of them)
- Probability of an event: $P(E)=\dfrac{n(E)}{n(S)}=\dfrac{\text{favourable outcomes}}{\text{total outcomes}}$
- Range: $0\le P(E)\le 1$.
- Sure (certain) event: $P=1$; impossible event: $P=0$.
- Complement: $P(\text{not }E)=1-P(E)$; so $P(E)+P(\bar E)=1$.
- Sum of all outcome probabilities $=1$.
3. Prerequisite Facts / Sample Spaces (in full)
- Coin: outcomes {H, T}; two coins โ {HH, HT, TH, TT} (4 outcomes).
- Die: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} (6 outcomes); two dice โ 36 outcomes.
- Pack of 52 cards: 4 suits (โ โฅ โฆ โฃ); 26 red + 26 black; 13 of each suit; face cards = J, Q, K (12 total); 4 aces; 4 of each rank.
- Fractions/percentages to express the probability; reduce to lowest terms.
4. Worked Example (one, for the method)
Q. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52. Find P(it is a king). Solution: $n(E)=4$ kings, $n(S)=52$. $P=\dfrac{4}{52}=\dfrac{1}{13}$.5. Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Giving a probability greater than 1 or negative (must be between 0 and 1).
- Wrong sample-space size (e.g. two dice have 36, not 12, outcomes).
- Forgetting to reduce the fraction.
- Miscounting cards (face cards = 12; ace is not a face card).
- Using $P(E)$ when $P(\text{not }E)=1-P(E)$ is asked.
6. Likely Exam Questions (with crisp answers)
- Write the probability formula. โ $P(E)=\frac{\text{favourable}}{\text{total}}$.
- Range of probability? โ 0 to 1.
- Probability of a sure event? โ 1.
- Probability of an impossible event? โ 0.
- State the complement rule. โ $P(\text{not }E)=1-P(E)$.
- Number of outcomes when two dice are rolled? โ 36.
- P(getting a head) for a fair coin? โ 1/2.
- How many face cards in a pack? โ 12.
- P(drawing a red card) from 52? โ 26/52 = 1/2.
- P(getting a number > 4 on a die)? โ 2/6 = 1/3.
- Sum of probabilities of all outcomes? โ 1.
- P(an ace) from a pack? โ 4/52 = 1/13.
Extended & Prerequisite Formulas (full)
- $P(E)=\tfrac{n(E)}{n(S)}$; 0โคPโค1; P(sure)=1, P(impossible)=0; P(not E)=1โP(E); ฮฃP=1.
- Sample spaces: coin {H,T}; 2 coins 4; die 6; 2 dice 36; pack 52 (26 red+26 black, 13/suit, 12 face cards, 4 aces).
- Prereq: fractions in lowest terms; favourable vs total outcomes; equally-likely assumption.